When President Bill Clinton began his first term in office, Congress was firmly Democratic. They had a 40-seat majority in the House of Representatives and had a 7-seat majority in the Senate. Clinton saw those majorities erode in his first midterm, however, as Republicans picked up 54 House seats and 9 Senate seats. This swing was in line with historical precedence, however. Since 1946, the average midterm loss for the president’s party is 25 seats.
In 2002, Republicans bucked that trend.
Coming off a contentious Presidential election in 2000, George W. Bush faced a divided Congress. Republicans had a slim-majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate wavered between Republican and Democrat control due to vacancies and party switches.
Initially, Democrats were perceived to have the advantage going into 2002. In addition to the historical challenges faced by an incumbent President, the national economy was lethargic and the stock market was performing poorly. When tragedy struck on September 11, 2001, though, President Bush became a unifying presence and his popularity surged.
Although Democrats were generally supportive of Bush’s “was on terror,” they had difficulty settling on a common message. Republicans, meanwhile, kept the focus on support for the popular president. The House passed dozens of Bush-approved bills, only to see them die in the Senate. Heading into the 2002 election, Bush was active on the campaign trail, travelling the country and effectively transforming local elections into referenda on his stewardship.
Up until 2002, a first-term president’s party had not gained ground in midterm elections since 1934. Furthermore, Republicans had never gained seats in the House when a Republican was president. When the dust settled from the midterm, Republicans gained a total of 9 seats in the House, adding to their majority, and picked up 2 seats in the Senate, solidifying their majority.
A full breakdown of the 2002 election cycle is below.
BY THE NUMBERS
House
Party Division Change By Congress*
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107th Congress (2001-2002): 213 Dems / 220 GOP / 2 Ind
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108th Congress (2003-2004): 205 Dems / 229 GOP / 1 Ind
Net Gains**
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Republicans had a net gain of 9 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives through the 2002 election cycle. 15 seats changed hands on Election Day.
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Republicans flipped 8 seats on Election Day in 2002.
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Democrats flipped 7 seats on Election Day in 2002.
Special Elections***
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There were 9 special elections in the House held between Jan. 1, 2001 and the end of 2002.
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The GOP flipped 1 seat held during a special election (VA-04). Democrats did not flip any seats.
Switched Parties
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1 Independent switched parties and became a Republican (VA-05).
Retirements/Open Seats
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There were 35 members who did not run again or who sought other offices.
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3 Democrats / 22 GOP
Incumbent Losses****
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4 incumbents were defeated in the 2002 election.
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Republicans flipped 2 seats by defeating the incumbent.
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Democrats flipped 2 seats by defeating the incumbent.
States That Lost/Gained Seats Due To Redistricting
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Lost Two Seats: NY, PA
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Lost One Seat: MI, IL, WI, IN, OH, CT, OK, MS
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Gained 2 Seats: AZ, TX, GA, FL
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Gained 1 Seat: NC, CO, NV, CA
Senate
Party Division Change By Congress*
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107th Congress (2001-2002): 50 Dems / 50 GOP
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The composition of the Senate changed several times during the 107th When the session started, there was a 50-50 split. However, from June 2001 through the 2002 election, Democrats were in the majority after Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont announced his switch from Republican to Independent status. His decision to caucus with the Democrats gave the Democrats a one-seat advantage (51-49).
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108th Congress (2003-2004): 49 Dems / 51 GOP
Net Gains
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34 Senate seats were up for election in 2002 (20 GOP / 14 Dem)
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Republicans had a net gain of 2 seats in the U.S. Senate through the 2002 election cycle.
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Republicans flipped 3 seats (3 on Election Day, including a special election)
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Democrats flipped 1 seat (1 on Election Day)
Special Elections
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There was 1 special election for Senate held on Election day to finish out Sen. Mel Carnahan’s (D-MO) term. Carnahan was re-elected posthumously after he passed away in October 2000. In January 2001, his wife, Jean Carnahan (D-MO), was appointed to hold the seat until the 2002 Election Day. Republican Jim Talent narrowly defeated Carnahan, flipping the seat.
Switched Parties
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1 Republican (Jim Jeffords, VT) switched parties and became an Independent between the 2000 and 2002 elections. He caucused with Democrats, however.
Retirements/Open Seats
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There were 7 Senators who did not run again or who sought other offices (includes Carnahan).
- 2 Democrats / 5 GOP
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Republicans flipped 1 open seat (MN).
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Democrats did not flip any open seats.
Incumbent Losses
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2 Senate incumbents were defeated in the 2002 election (does not include Carnahan).
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Democrats flipped 1 seat by defeating the incumbent (AR).
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Democrats flipped 1 seat by defeating the incumbent (GA).
Sources: (Party Divisions, U.S. House, U.S. Senate; “Vital Statistics On Congress,” Brookings Institute; Darren Pittman, “Changing Seats: The New Look Of Congress,” National Telephone Cooperative Association, Jan-Feb 2003; 2002 Election Results, CNN, Archived 11/14/02)
* Party division totals are based on Election Day results.
**The “flipped seat” number reflects shifts in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the November elections. It does not include party gains resulting from the creation of new districts and does not account for situations in which two districts were reduced to one, thus forcing incumbents to run against each other.
*** Figures do not include special elections held on the day of the general election.
****Figures do not include members that were defeated in a primary.