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Past Is Prologue: Obama’s 2010 “Shellacking”

Having already investigated the first midterm and reelections under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, this week we are turning our attention to 2010, when President Barack Obama’s message of “hope” and “change” would face its first serious election battle.

Following a second term that saw his approval ratings plummet, President George W. Bush and the Republican Party experienced several setbacks. In 2006, they lost control of both the House and the Senate. After a contentious primary election, then-Senator Barack Obama was able to lead a blue wave that increased the Democratic majority in both chambers and ushered in his term as the 44th President of the United States. After the 2008 election, Democrats had a 40-seat majority in the House and, due to 2 Independents who caucused with them, effectively had an 8-seat majority in the Senate.

Operating under the pretense that they had been given a mandate to govern, in 2009 and 2010 Democrats set out to push their liberal agenda, headlined by the Affordable Health Care Act, or “ObamaCare.” Republicans and conservative activists were incensed by the Democratic administration’s federal overreach and felt that the President’s signature legislation went too far. Thus the Tea Party movement was organically formed.

Despite Democratic efforts to cast ObamaCare in a positive light, Americans across the country rejected what they perceived as a “tax and spend” liberal agenda. Using President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) as foils, Republicans were able to capitalize on the national mood.

Following the election, President Obama famously admitted his party had received a “shellacking” in the midterms – an accurate description of what happened. In the House, Democrats went from a 40-seat majority to a minority by a 25-seat margin. Although Democrats were able to keep control of the Senate, their majority dwindled from 8 seats to 3.

A full breakdown of the 2010 election cycle is below.

BY THE NUMBERS

House

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 111th Congress (2009-2010): 257 Dems / 178 GOP

  • 112th Congress (2011-2012): 193 Dems / 242 GOP

Net Gains**

  • Republicans had a net gain of 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives through the 2010 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 66 seats.

  • Democrats flipped 3 seats.

Special Elections

  • There were 11 special elections in the House held between Jan. 1, 2009 and the end of 2010.

  • Republicans flipped 2 Democrats seats through special elections.

  • Democrats flipped 1 Republican seat through a special election.

Switched Parties

  • 1 Democrat switched parties and became a Republican (AL-05).

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 32 members who did not run again or who sought other offices.

  • 17 Democrats / 15 GOP

Incumbent Losses***

  • 58 incumbents were defeated in the 2010 election.

  • Republicans flipped 54 seats by defeating the incumbent Democrat.

  • Democrats flipped 4 seats by defeating the incumbent Republican.

Senate

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 111th Congress (2009-2010): 57 Dems / 41 GOP / 2 Ind (Caucused w/ Dems)

  • 112th Congress (2011-2012): 51 Dems / 47 GOP / 2 Ind (Caucused w/ Dems)

Net Gains**

  • 37 Senate seats were up for election in 2010 (18 GOP / 19 Dem)

  • Republicans had a net gain of 6 seats in the U.S. Senate through the 2010 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 6 seats.

  • Democrats flipped 0 seats.

Switched Parties

  • 1 Republican switched parties and became a Democrat (Arlen Specter, PA).

Special Elections

  • There was 1 special election in the Senate held between Jan. 1, 2009 and the end of 2010.

  • Republicans flipped 1 Democrat seat through a special election.

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 12 Senators who did not run again or who sought other offices (6 Dem / 6 GOP)

  • Republicans flipped 4 open seats.

Incumbent Losses

  • 2 Senate incumbents were defeated by the opposing party in the 2010 election.

  • Republicans flipped 2 seats by defeating the incumbent Democrat.

Sources

Party Divisions, U.S. House, U.S. Senate

“Vital Statistics On Congress,” Brookings Institute;

“10 Takeaways From The 2010 Midterms” NPR, 11/3/10

Notes

* Figures presented are the House/Senate party divisions as of the initial election results. Subsequent changes in membership due to deaths, resignations, contested or special elections, or changes in a Member’s party affiliation are not included.

**The “flipped seat” number reflects shifts in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the November elections. It does not include party gains resulting from the creation of new districts and does not account for situations in which two districts were reduced to one, thus forcing incumbents to run against each other. The Senate number does not include incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who lost her primary to Joe Miller (R-AK) but won the general election as a Republican write-in candidate. It does include Pat Toomey (R-PA), who defeated Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA). Specter had changed his affiliation from Republican to Democrat in office on April 30, 2009.

***Includes Parker Griffith (AL) who began his House service January 3, 2009, as a Democrat but switched to a Republican on December 22, 2009.

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