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Past Is Prologue: How Republicans Bucked History in 1996

In last week’s Past is Prologue feature, we covered the 1994 “Republican Revolution.” In the first midterm of his presidency, Bill Clinton saw Republicans flip a whopping 56 seats in the House, giving the GOP its first majority in 40 years. Republicans also took back the Senate in decisive fashion, flipping 9 Democratic-held seats without losing any of their own.

The Republican-controlled 104th Congress made good on the promises they ran on in 1994, voting to eliminate federal mandates on states, for a balanced budget amendment, and for cuts in expenditures designed to balance the budget by 2002.

Going into the 1996 election, however, Republicans faced headwinds. The government shut down twice in late 1995, and its impact seemed to reverse polls for President Clinton, giving him a sizable lead over Republican Presidential candidate Bob Dole. On the Congressional front, Republicans had a history of losing majorities after winning them. Dating back to 1930, Republicans had only won majorities in the House of Representatives two times (1946 and 1952). They would subsequently lose control in the elections that immediately followed. Democrats only needed to take 20 seats to capture back the majority in 1996, and a repeat of 1948 and 1954 seemed possible.

Bill Clinton would go on to win his presidential re-elect, carrying 31 states to Dole’s 19, and earning 379 electoral votes. Republicans, however, bucked historical precedence and retained Congressional control for the first time in more than 60 years. Democrats were able gain 9 seats in the House on Election Day, but special elections and party switches mitigated those gains, and Republicans maintained a 9-seat majority heading into the 105th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans picked up 2 seats on Election Day, flipping 3 seats to the 1 seat Democrats flipped. Factoring in party switches and special elections, Republicans grew their majority by 3, giving them a 55-45 advantage.

A full breakdown of the 1996 election cycle is below.

BY THE NUMBERS

House

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 104th Congress (1995-1996): 204 Dems / 230 GOP / 1 Ind

  • 105th Congress (1997-1998): 207 Dems / 226 GOP / 2 Ind

Net Gains

  • Democrats had a net gain of 3 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives through the 1996 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 19 seats through the election cycle (13 on Election Day).

  • Democrats flipped 22 seats through the election cycle (22 on Election Day).

  • Independents flipped 1 seat (previously held by Republicans)

Special Elections**

  • There were 5 special elections in the House held between the 1994 and 1996 elections.

  • The GOP flipped 1 seat held during a special election (CA-15). Democrats did not flip any seats.

Switched Parties

  • 5 Democrats switched parties and became Republicans between the 1994 and 1996 elections.

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 49 members who did not run again or who sought other offices.

    • 28 Democrats / 21 GOP

  • Republicans Flipped 10 open seats

  • Democrats Flipped 4 0pen seats

Incumbent Losses***

  • 21 incumbents were defeated in the 1996 election.

  • Republicans flipped 3 seats by defeating the incumbent.

  • Democrats flipped 18 seats by defeating the incumbent.

Senate

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 104th Congress (1995-1996): 48 Dems / 52 GOP

  • 105th Congress (1997-1998): 45 Dems / 55 GOP

Net Gains

  • Republicans had a net gain of 3 seats in the U.S. Senate through the 1996 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 5 seats (3 on Election Day)

  • Democrats flipped 2 seats (1 on Election Day)

Special Elections**

  • There was 1 special election for Senate held between the 1994 and 1996 elections.

  • Democrats flipped 1 seat held during a special election (Oregon). Republicans did not flip any seats.

Switched Parties

  • 2 Democrats switched parties and became Republicans between the 1994 and 1996 elections.

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 13 Senators who did not run again or who sought other offices.

    • 8 Democrats / 5 GOP

  • Republicans flipped 3 open seats.

  • Democrats did not flip any open seats.

Incumbent Losses

  • 1 Senate incumbent was defeated in the 1996 election.****

  • Democrats flipped 1 seat by defeating the incumbent.

Sources: (Party Divisions, U.S. House, U.S. Senate; “Vital Statistics On Congress,” Brookings Institute ; John F. Cogan and David Brady, “The 1996 House Elections: Reaffirming The Conservative Trend,” Hoover Institute, 3/1/97)

* Party division totals are based on Election Day results.

** Figures do not include special elections held on the day of the general election.

***Figures do not include members that were defeated in a primary.

****Number does not include Sen. Sheila Frahm (R-KS), who was appointed to fill Sen. Bob Dole’s (R-KS) seat. Sam Brownback (R-KS) defeated Frahm in a Republican primary and went on to win the seat.

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